Professional Hockey

Manitoba Player Development Funnel

Official registration data from Hockey Canada showing how Manitoba's hockey players progress through the development system.

Last updated: October 8, 2026

24,323

Registered MB players (2024-25)

1,607

Players per birth year (estimate)

35

WHL draft picks a year (2022-2025)

4.5

NHL draft picks a year (2020-2025)

Source: Hockey Canada 2024-25 Annual Report, player registrations (p. 20)

The Development Funnel

U7(5-6 years)

3,347

Every hockey journey starts here. Fun-focused introduction to skating and hockey basics. Source

Note: Registration counts are Hockey Canada's for 2024-25. Draft counts are Hockey Manitoba's. NHL counts are players born in Manitoba, which is close to, but not the same as, players who came up through Manitoba hockey. Numbers vary from year to year.

Manitoba Draft History

Year	WHL draft picks	NHL draft picks	Notes
2026	15	not yet counted	A much smaller year; Hockey Manitoba gave no explanation.
2025	39	7	Carter Bear (West St. Paul) went 13th overall to Detroit.
2024	33	1	Clarke Caswell (Brandon), 141st overall to Seattle.
2023	38	3	Carson Bjarnason (Carberry) was the first goalie taken, 51st overall.
2022	31	8	Geekie, Mateychuk and Pickering all went in the first round.
2021	26	4	-
2020	not yet counted	4	-

Each count links to the Hockey Manitoba announcement it came from.

How We Calculate the Odds

Here is exactly how the odds of a Manitoba hockey player reaching each step are worked out, so you can check them.

One birth year of players

U7 to U18 registered (2024-25)20,895

Birth years covered (U7 to U18)13

Players per birth year1,607

Each step, per birth year

WHL draft picks a year (2022-2025)35.3 → 2.2%

NHL draft picks a year (2020-2025)4.5 → 0.28%

NHL debuts a year (last ten seasons)3.4 → 0.21%

400-game careers a year1.2 → 0.08%

Careers: 24 of the 66 Manitoba-born players who debuted in 2000 to 2015 reached 400 games (36%); that share is applied to today's debut rate.

Limits of this method

Today's draft picks came from players who registered years ago, when the cohort was a different size
Players born in Manitoba are not exactly the players who grew up in Manitoba hockey
Being drafted does not mean making the league
Canada-wide studies of whole birth years put a 400-game career at about 1 in 4,000; Manitoba's estimate is better because the province produces more NHL players per registered player than Ontario did in those studies, and because the method differs

1 in 46

WHL draft

1 in 360

NHL draft

1 in 470

One NHL game

1 in 1,300

400-game career

Sources

What this means for parents

The honest truth:Very few Manitoba kids who start hockey will reach the NHL. Manitoba's own numbers put a 400-game career at about 1 in 1,300players in a birth year. That's not meant to discourage anyone. It's meant to encourage realistic expectations.

The good news: Hockey provides tremendous value beyond the NHL. The vast majority of players benefit from physical fitness, teamwork, discipline, friendships and fun, all of which are guaranteed, unlike an NHL career.

Our recommendation:Focus on your child's enjoyment and development at their current level. The players who do make it to elite levels almost always loved the game first, not the other way around.