NHL prospects
Which young Manitobans have the best NHL chance?
The next three NHL draft classes from Manitoba, rated by one published rule built from how past Manitoba players at the same stage turned out. Every player links to their public record.
Read this first. Each label is the chance of playing at least one NHL game, for players in a similar spot in the past. It is not a scouting report and it is not a verdict on any player. Injuries, growth, coaching and hard work change things fast at this age, and late bloomers are common. We name only players rated Real chance or better; the rest are counted, not named.
The labels come from a fixed rule table, shown in full below, so the same public facts always give the same label. Families can ask for a correction or for a player to be removed, and we will act on it.
The 2027 NHL Draft
Born September 16, 2008 to September 15, 2009. Draft year: NHL Central Scouting or a public draft board where available, otherwise the 2025-26 WHL season.
- Very likelyProvisional
C, Brandon · Brandon Wheat Kings
- 13th on the Tankathon 2027 big board, standing in until NHL Central Scouting's first list.
- Canada, 2024 U17 World Challenge
- Good chance
LW, Winnipeg · Victoria Royals
- WHL regular in 2025-26: 68 WHL games, 36 points (0.53 a game).
- Good chance
C, Winnipeg · Brandon Wheat Kings
- WHL regular in 2025-26: 63 WHL games, 31 points (0.49 a game).
- Real chance
C, Winnipeg · Lethbridge Hurricanes
- WHL regular in 2025-26: 61 WHL games, 18 points (0.29 a game).
- Real chance
D, Oakbank · Kamloops Blazers
- WHL regular in 2025-26: 42 WHL games, 2 points (0.05 a game).
- Real chance
RW, Winnipeg · Regina Pats
- WHL regular in 2025-26: 46 WHL games, 4 points (0.09 a game).
| # | Player | Hometown | Pos. | WHL team | Evidence | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Jacobson | Brandon | C | Brandon Wheat Kings |
| Very likelyProvisional |
| 2 | Ludovic Perreault | Winnipeg | LW | Victoria Royals |
| Good chance |
| 3 | Prabh Bhathal | Winnipeg | C | Brandon Wheat Kings |
| Good chance |
| 4 | Tyden Lafournaise | Winnipeg | C | Lethbridge Hurricanes |
| Real chance |
| 5 | Madden Tymchak | Oakbank | D | Kamloops Blazers |
| Real chance |
| 6 | Shea Rollason | Winnipeg | RW | Regina Pats |
| Real chance |
Players with the same label and the same rule are listed in WHL draft order. That order is a tie-break, not a difference in chances.
28 more Manitobans in this draft class are rated Outside chance on current evidence and are not named. We name players only at Real chance or better.
These are estimates for a group, not predictions about any one player. They come from how past Manitoba players at the same stage turned out, using only public draft picks, rosters and league stats. Most NHL players from Manitoba looked ordinary at 15. Ask for a correction or removal.
The 2028 NHL Draft
Born September 16, 2009 to September 15, 2010. Rated on WHL draft position and early call-ups. The 2026-27 season counts once a player's team has played 20 games.
- Good chance
C, Brandon · Everett Silvertips
- First-round WHL pick (5th overall in the 2025 WHL draft).
- Good chance
D, Dominion City · Vancouver Giants
- First-round WHL pick (13th overall in the 2025 WHL draft).
- Good chance
RW, Waywayseecappo · Prince Albert Raiders
- First-round WHL pick (16th overall in the 2025 WHL draft).
- Real chance
LW, St. Claude · Edmonton Oil Kings
- Round 2 WHL pick (25th overall in the 2025 WHL draft), called up for 3 WHL games in 2025-26.
| # | Player | Hometown | Pos. | WHL team | Evidence | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reid Nicol | Brandon | C | Everett Silvertips |
| Good chance |
| 2 | Crosby Mateychuk | Dominion City | D | Vancouver Giants |
| Good chance |
| 3 | Athens Shingoose | Waywayseecappo | RW | Prince Albert Raiders |
| Good chance |
| 4 | Cole Landreville | St. Claude | LW | Edmonton Oil Kings |
| Real chance |
Players with the same label and the same rule are listed in WHL draft order. That order is a tie-break, not a difference in chances.
32 more Manitobans in this draft class are rated Outside chance on current evidence and are not named. We name players only at Real chance or better.
These are estimates for a group, not predictions about any one player. They come from how past Manitoba players at the same stage turned out, using only public draft picks, rosters and league stats. Most NHL players from Manitoba looked ordinary at 15. Ask for a correction or removal.
The 2029 NHL Draft
Born September 16, 2010 to September 15, 2011. Rated on WHL draft position and early call-ups. The 2027-28 season will count once it is 20 games old.
- Good chance
D, Winnipeg · Kamloops Blazers
- First-round WHL pick (11th overall in the 2025 WHL draft).
| # | Player | Hometown | Pos. | WHL team | Evidence | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateo Ferreira | Winnipeg | D | Kamloops Blazers |
| Good chance |
13 more Manitobans in this draft class are rated Outside chance on current evidence and are not named. We name players only at Real chance or better.
These are estimates for a group, not predictions about any one player. They come from how past Manitoba players at the same stage turned out, using only public draft picks, rosters and league stats. Most NHL players from Manitoba looked ordinary at 15. Ask for a correction or removal.
The 2030 NHL Draft: early signals only
These players are about 14 and have not reached the WHL draft (May 2027), so this page gives them no labels and does not name them.
- 3 Manitobans born in 2012 and named to Hockey Manitoba's 2026 Boys U16 Program of Excellence (top 28), a year younger than everyone else. Source
That is the strongest public sign for this age, but nothing measurable at 14 has predicted NHL careers for Manitobans. Players are named once they reach the WHL draft and a rating of Real chance or better.
The 2031 to 2036 drafts: what to watch, not who
These players were born after September 15, 2012, and have not reached the WHL draft. Nothing measurable before that has predicted NHL careers for Manitobans, so this page names no one until they are drafted into the WHL at 15.
| Age | Signal | How much it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 8 to 12 | Youth stats, AA or AAA, spring and summer teams | No measurable link to NHL careers for Manitobans. Heavily tilted by birth month: about four times as many January to March births reach the WHL as October to December births, but they do not reach the NHL more often. |
| 13 to 14 | Under-15 AAA role, provincial tryouts, being picked a year early for older teams | A useful early filter, but there is no Manitoba outcome data yet. Playing a year up is the clearest public sign. |
| 15 | WHL draft round, under-16 provincial team, WHL Cup | The biggest single jump in the evidence: first-round WHL picks reach the NHL far more often than later picks (checkpoint 1 below). |
| 16 | Full-time WHL role and scoring rate, Canada under-17 | The best single predictor we found (checkpoint 2 below). |
| 17 | NHL Central Scouting rating, public draft boards, Hlinka Gretzky Cup | Draft-year rankings replace everything earlier (checkpoint 3 below). |
| 18 to 24 | Pro development | About 1 in 7 Manitoba-born NHL regulars were never drafted. Late bloomers keep the door open. |
How the labels are worked out
Every label comes from this table and nothing else. Each row is the share of past Manitoba players in that situation who went on to play at least one NHL game. A player is rated at the latest of three checkpoints he has reached, because newer evidence predicted better than older evidence. Rules version 2026-10-10.
Checkpoint 1: After the WHL draft (age 15)
From the WHL draft until the player's team has played 20 games in the season before his NHL draft year. History: Manitoba-hometown players with NHL draft years 2016 to 2021 who played at least one WHL game (WHL records).
| Situation | Chance | Past players | Reached the NHL |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-round WHL pick | 36% | 13 | 6 |
| Later-round WHL pick who played WHL games two seasons before his NHL draft year (an early call-up, usually at 15) | 25% | 13 | 4 |
| Later-round WHL pick, no early call-up | 3% | 70 | 2 |
| Not drafted by a WHL team | 1% | 31 | 0 |
Checkpoint 2: The season before the NHL draft year (age 16)
Once the player's team has played 20 games that season. A regular plays 40+ games in a full season, or 60% of his team's games part-way through. History: Manitoba-hometown skaters with NHL draft years 2009 to 2021 who played at least one WHL game (WHL records).
| Situation | Chance | Past players | Reached the NHL |
|---|---|---|---|
| WHL regular scoring 0.3+ points per game | 47% | 26 | 14 |
| WHL regular scoring under 0.3 points per game | 16% | 36 | 6 |
| Not a WHL regular | 3% | 174 | 5 |
Checkpoint 3: The NHL draft year (age 17), once NHL Central Scouting lists him
From NHL Central Scouting's first list for his draft year. Before that list, a top-32 spot on a recognised public draft board stands in for an A rating and is marked provisional. History: Manitoba-born skaters in NHL Central Scouting's final North American rankings for the 2008 to 2021 drafts, each counted once in his first ranked year (73 players; NHL's draft-rankings records).
| Situation | Chance | Past players | Reached the NHL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked in the top 32, or rated A (first round) | 74% | 17 | 14 |
| Ranked 33rd or lower, or rated B or C | 37% | 56 | 20 |
| Not on Central Scouting's final list (April) | 3% | Same as a player who was not a WHL regular. Of 7 Manitobans dropped between the midterm and final lists (2008 to 2021), 1 reached the NHL; too few to set a number. | |
Labels
- Very likely: 60% or more
- Good chance: 30% to 59%
- Real chance: 15% to 29%
- Long shot: 5% to 14%
- Outside chance: 0% to 4%
House rules
- Each row blends its own record with its checkpoint's overall average, as if the average were 5 extra players, so a small group cannot swing to 0% or 100% on luck.
- Only players rated Real chance or better are named. Players rated Long shot or Outside chance are counted, so no one is publicly named as a long shot.
- Players with the same label are listed in WHL draft order, as a tie-break only.
- No labels or names before the WHL draft (age 14 and under). Younger classes are described by counts only.
- Goalies are not rated: there are too few to model.
- Players outside the WHL are not rated unless NHL Central Scouting lists them.
- "Manitoban" means a Manitoba hometown as listed by the WHL or Hockey Manitoba.
- Birth dates are used only to work out each player's draft year and are not shown.
How well it works
- Checkpoint 2 was built only from players with draft years 2009 to 2015, then tested on 127 players with draft years 2016 to 2021: it predicted about 14.7 NHL players and 12 made it (it ran about 20% high), and it ranked a real NHL player above a non-NHL player 85% of the time.
- Checkpoint 1 could not be tested on separate players because WHL draft records only go back to about 2014.
- Checkpoint 3 rests on 73 ranked Manitobans from 2008 to 2021 with no separate test. Midterm rankings gave nearly the same results (top 32: 11 of 14 reached the NHL; 33rd or lower: 16 of 45), so one table serves every Central Scouting list.
- It cannot see injuries, growth spurts or coaching. Morgan Geekie would have been rated Outside chance at 15 and at 16, and has played more than 400 NHL games.
Sources and updates
WHL statistics, hometowns and draft slots come from the league's official statistics service. Draft lists, provincial teams and NHL Central Scouting lists come from Hockey Manitoba's announcements, and national teams from Hockey Canada and the WHL. Every player name links to its source. The page is refreshed monthly during the season and after each draft and scouting list, and every change is reviewed before it appears here.
Corrections and removals
If something here is wrong, or a family would rather a player not be listed, email info@puckready.ca. Removals need no reason.
Where Manitoba players go